April 16th, 2020 — Across the globe, nearly 4 billion people are under stay-at-home orders in response to the coronavirus. As daily life has been upended, countries and regions are seeing sudden shifts in electricity demand, most drastically represented by a 21% decline in Italy.
An exogenous shock like coronavirus requires utilities, retail electricity providers (REPs), independent power producers (IPPs), and other energy traders and suppliers to rapidly forecast and adjust supply in order to provide safe, reliable, and cost-effective electricity. Traditional electricity demand forecasts, which rely on sparse weather data, analog meter readings, and regression-based historical demand data, are insufficient in the face of such shocks.
Amperon builds real-time electricity demand intelligence via smart meters and artificial intelligence. When faced with pandemics, climate disasters, and an increasingly complex grid, Amperon can rapidly iterate on models to account for never-before-seen grid volatility.
Leveraging ML models based on high-resolution real time weather data, smart meter data, and automated calculations of numerous grid complexities, Amperon has the flexibility to incorporate dynamic and growing impacts like coronavirus, wildfires and other grid stressors into highly accurate forecasts. They’re already playing a key role during the current pandemic, modeling what ISOs can expect during Shelter in Place and its aftermath using data from Italy, South Korea, and other parts of the world. You can find the full published analysis here.
By offering real-time insights that enable energy suppliers to better understand demand, Amperon is building a critical foundation for major stakeholders to succeed in navigating the grid of the future.
A Brave New Grid
The importance of demand forecasting is by no means limited to times of crisis. In order to balance the grid, electricity producers, suppliers, and traders are constantly forecasting supply and demand on time frames ranging from minutes to decades. The stakes extend well beyond utility control rooms: long-term utility planners have over-forecasted by at least 1% per year over the last ten years. While 1% may seem negligible, this margin amounts to billions of dollars spent on unnecessary additional generation capacity every year.
Over the past decade, electricity supply and demand have become increasingly complex. Variable renewable generation, both in front of and behind the meter, and climate-fueled extreme weather events have resulted in increased volatility and uncertainty.
Meanwhile, connected hardware such as smart meters have driven increased accessibility and granularity in demand data. According to Wood Mackenzie, over 1 billion smart meters will be installed globally by 2024, a 14-fold increase from 2017. Exponential increases in data, however, do not automatically translate into value for utilities, REPs, IPPs, and traders, all of which have different needs and require customized products and features.
Powerhouse Ventures Invests in Amperon
Building accurate, dynamic demand forecasting models requires deep expertise in power markets, data science, and weather. Amperon has assembled an experienced team with over 40 years of global energy markets expertise that brings both depth and breadth to forecasting innovation,
As the growth of distributed resources, renewable intermittency, and extreme events have forced utilities and suppliers to become more effective operationally, Amperon has positioned itself as a powerful solution for stakeholders adapting to a new grid paradigm. Amperon is currently active in ERCOT, PJM, NYISO, and Australia's NEM and WA, where they serve a variety of paid customers including REPs, trading firms, and grid operators. They plan to expand into more global grid regions as they continue to grow the team and product offerings.
Powerhouse Ventures is proud to invest in Amperon’s $2M seed round alongside Blackhorn Ventures, V1.VC, SK Ventures, Garuda Ventures, and Intelis Capital, joining previous investors Notation Capital, SV Angel, Ramez Naam, and Urban Future Lab. Thanks to Jonathan Shieber, Senior Editor at TechCrunch, for featuring Amperon's raise in TechCrunch this morning.
Special thanks to Marie Thompson, Alexandra Harbour, and Ry Storey-Fisher
To read more about Powerhouse Ventures’ other publicly-announced investments, visit our Insights page.